With Cerulli Associates estimating that nearly 50% of all financial advisors are over the age of 55, the headcount of financial advisors is projected to shrink, potentially quite substantially, in the coming decade. Which can trigger more industry consolidation (mergers and acquisitions) and succession planning (as existing clients of advisors leaving the industry will need go somewhere else for advice), but also risks further slowing the amount of technology development and new businesses entering the marketplace to serve financial advisors (as many investors don’t want to fund businesses in a shrinking marketplace! Yet as it turns out, looking at the total number of “financial advisors” may actually be the wrong way to measure the trajectory of the financial advisor marketplace to begin with… and when viewed properly, the opportunities for serving (real) financial advisors is actually on the rise!
In this week’s #OfficeHours with @MichaelKitces, my Tuesday 1 PM EST broadcast via Periscope, we discuss why it’s so difficult to estimate the number of existing financial advisors in the first place, why many of the predictions regarding the trajectory of the financial advisor headcount aren’t taking into account some key drivers, and why, ultimately, looking to the number of CFP certificants may offer the best perspective on the opportunities within the industry… and whether the number of people offering (real) financial advice is decreasing or actually increasing.
Cerulli Associates, who delivers some of the best industry research out there, estimates that there are just over 300,000 financial advisors – a surprisingly difficult number to estimate given the overlap of advisors across RIA, broker-dealer, and insurance channels. The caveat, though, is that fewer than half of them even state that they actually give financial planning advice… suggesting that the majority are “financial advisors” in name only but are still predominantly focused on the sale of insurance and investment products. This isn’t entirely surprising, though, given that there are only about 82,000 CFP certificants (and not all of those are practicing or, if they are, offering “real” financial planning)!
Nonetheless, the industry projection is that the advisor headcount “must” inevitably decline, given how many of the 300,000 financial advisors are over age 55. Yet the reality is that financial planning isn’t a career that you retire from simply because you’re eligible for Social Security and Medicare. Retirement as a concept was introduced during the industrial age when most people worked with their hands, and after a certain age, people weren’t able to meet the physical demands of their jobs anymore. However, providing financial advice is an intellectual, not manual, endeavor. And when you consider the fact that highly experienced financial planners on average make over $400k after 30 years of experience and that, by the time they reach 65, they’re not really working at the same pace that they did in their 30s, it just doesn’t make sense that a lot of folks would simply walk away from that sort of job until they had no other choice!
The other reason that the declining headcount may be overstated is that it’s based on the assumption that the industry won’t be able to attract enough new financial advisors. On the one hand, it’s easy to understand why Millennials are reluctant to join an industry that’s still seen as primarily sales-driven, but the projections don’t take into account the number of industry entrants who are career-changers. Because, the financial industry isn’t alone in dealing with the effects of automation, and the earnings potential as an advisor makes it an appealing option for those who are mid-career and looking for new opportunities… especially for attorneys and accountants, who are already in roles that oftentimes overlap with financial services, and are facing even more pressure from technology (e.g., TurboTax and LegalZoom) against their more-transactionally-oriented services.
Of course, some have suggested that it doesn’t matter how many financial advisors are coming into the industry or not because they just won’t be needed in the age of “robos” and automation. Yet the rise of technology and automation doesn’t always play out as expected. The introduction of ATMs in the 1970s resulted in an unexpected increase in the number of human bank tellers, rather than the decline that was predicted at the time, because the technology made banking so much more efficient it expanded the reach of advisors and increased human job opportunities (on top of all the ATMs!). Similarly, automation in the financial services industry has the potential not to make human advisors obsolete, but rather could spur potentially exponential growth in financial planning by allowing advisors to efficiently serve larger segments of the population… recognizing that the true number of households being served with real financial planning is at best only about 15% of all the households in the US. Simply put, there’s a huge opportunity out there to leverage technology and hire more human financial advisors serve the other 85% of the households that aren’t being served today. Not to mention that as technology puts more pressure on advisors to justify their fees in the first place, more and more advisors are starting to offer comprehensive financial planning, which is why (despite the lack of growth overall in the financial advisor headcount) a record number of people have been sitting for the CFP exam for the first time in recent years.
Ultimately, the key point is to recognize that overall industry trends about the “shrinking” headcount of financial advisors may be misunderstood. Despite projections that the industry will shrink in the coming years, there are plenty of good reasons to be optimistic about opportunities for financial advisors. The retirement wave will take much longer to materialize than first thought, and instead of being a threat to financial advisor jobs, technological efficiencies will help the industry expand into underserved markets and will end up increasing the demand for financial advice in the long run. Which helps to explain why the number of financial advisors is up over the past 5 years, despite the anticipated wave of retirees and the rise of the robo-advisor movement!
In the meantime, for those who really want to get a handle on the opportunities in the financial advice industry and the advisor marketplace, perhaps it’s time to stop looking at the number of people called “financial advisors” who are simply registered to legally sell insurance and investment products, and look to the number actually being trained to give and get paid for financial planning advice (through programs like CFP certification)… which shows that the market for financial advisors has never been bigger and stronger than it is today!
source https://www.kitces.com/blog/financial-advisor-headcount-total-addressable-market-tam-technology-hiring-growth/
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